Re: Think Long Term...
From: Alexander Robin A (alexande.robiuwlax.edu)
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2007 06:30:43 -0700 (PDT)
It would also be nice if we stopped thinking of the earth as "ours" and thus 
feel free to expand population to cover every inch of the globe. The cultural 
forces 1) against population control even via contraception and 2) thinking of 
other denizens of the earth as ours to do with as we please are still too 
strong, so I fear things will get worse before they get better. (Number 2 could 
be called the "homo sapiens is the only species that matters" concept and still 
holds sway in most religions, government agencies dealing with wildlife, and 
the population at large. I think this is so important because it speaks to how 
we relate to and treat the earth and its inhabitants.)
 
Robin Alexander

________________________________

From: Ronald Frederick Greek [mailto:fred.greek [at] yahoo.com]
Sent: Wed 7/4/2007 12:46 PM
To: cohousing-l [at] cohousing.org
Subject: [C-L]_ Think Long Term...






In a long-term sustainable and stable human community, there would essentially 
be no new housing construction, other than replacement for such as exceed their 
useful lifespan.



Eventually, regardless of conservation efforts, we will have to end all fossil 
fuel use (oil, coal, gas, shale oil, tar sands, etc...)



While the first-thought for alternative energy sources might be that prices 
will come down with more demand, and economics of scale for production, there 
is a barrier to face:



An annual human energy use of 30 billion barrels of oil is a lot of energy... 
Run the numbers in BTU or kilowatt equivalents, and compare to whatever 
renewable you like, I suspect you will find that there is no practical 
long-term approach that is going to allow humanity to continue to use energy at 
the current level. 



Absent some energy miracle, without the "free" energy from fossil fuels, what 
works, and what doesn't? 



Doesn't everything essential need to be re-localized? 



Soon, many choices will be based not on what is desired, or even economically 
beneficial, but what is physically possible.  Can you meet your life-support 
needs locally, or preferably at home?  If not you are dependent on working for 
someone, and having someone else produce sufficient surplus to trade with you.



I expect that eventually (perhaps soon) will will once again see 
multi-generation homesteads, potentially stablizing at an average of 8 to 10 
people.  In the long term, so long as the owners do not encumber the property 
with debt, and the real property taxes remain modest, this will eventually 
cover both young and old generations for a place to live.



But, contrary to argument in favor of high-rise and small units, if you expect 
the population to subsist locally, I would argue that each family unit needs to 
be around 1/4 acre, more in those areas where the growing season is less. 



Water:



While the direct per day water use per person (drinking, cooking, cleaning) can 
be modest (The Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and 
Security puts the minimum daily intake at 3 liters, with 20 liters for hygiene, 
15 per bathing, 10 for food preparation, or an overall average of 50 liters - 
around 13.195 gallon), this ignores the water "embedded" in food.   In my 
desert climate, my minimum gardening water needs per person is around 175 
gallons per day.  (Based on 1,000 ft. sq. garden)



Food:



This would include the "yuch" factor of re-cycling of human effluent to the 
crop medium, which in a low energy situation puts the crop area close to the 
living areas.  It requires a minimum area for calorie crops, and a maximum area 
that can be fertilized using the effluent.  My estimates are 1,000 and 1,600 
sq. ft. respectively.  (All year growing season.) For an eventual 
multi-generation homestead, it works out to about 1/4 acre per family of good 
solar exposure. 



Shelter & More: 



How far into the future do you care about?  If you're planning for the future 
of your children, and their children, design and build for no fossil fuel use.  
I urge all though to avoid thoughts of running for the hills or otherwise 
thinking of solo-survival in a bunker. 



We do not need survivalist thinking, we need minds working toward 
re-engineering our infrastructure to allow for full service yet human scale 
communities.

"In our every deliberation, we must consider the impact of our decisions on the 
next seven generations"  - From the Great Law of the Iroquois Nation



Ronald Frederick Greek
  Moderator (Electronic Janitor)
Sustainable Tucson
  
  "Stabilization of human numbers is no solution... To speak of an actual 
reduction of human population - exactly what is needed if the world is to avoid 
unprecedented human dieoff through famine, pestilence, and war - is unthinkable 
and unspeakable, at least in polite company.  Not just Catholics and 
conservatives, but liberals as awll become positively apoplectic if the subject 
is broached.  And so the discussion necessary to understanding our econlogical 
dilemma, and dealing effectively with it, never occurs."
  - Richard Heinberg, Power Down



      
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