Re: Question re failure rate of forming groups
From: Kristen Simmons (
Date: Tue, 4 May 2010 18:17:04 -0700 (PDT)
My thought may be relevant (or not).

Prior to the Wright Brothers success at Kitty Hawk, the failure rate for
humans flying an aircraft was 100%.

To me, the best question isn't how many groups fail and if that number has
decreased, but what did the successful groups do that made them successful?

I mean no disrespect to those posing the failure rate question.

Warm regards,

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On Tue, May 4, 2010 at 8:17 PM, Sharon Villines
<sharon [at]>wrote:

> On May 4, 2010, at 12:02 PM, Craig Ragland wrote:
> > That being said, I don't believe these numbers could possibly be based
> > on strong data and I don't believe anyone actually knows about any
> > changes in the failure rate. Craig
> There is also the question of what a "forming group" is. Is it forming
> when:
> 1. A group of fiends begin exploring the idea,
> 2. The put out public notices,
> 3. Have  been talking for one year or more,
> 4. Are continuing to attract new members,
> 5. Are ready to buy land if they can find it, etc.
> Like urban, suburban, and rural have to be defined to have any
> meaning, "forming" is open to interpretation.
> Active consultants, however, are likely to have a better sense. If
> they are hired by a group to work on issues, one can assume that that
> group would be serious and at a tangible level of "forming." Then on
> follow up, they would know if the group made it to move in.
> People like Diane Christian and Laird Schaub have been in a
> communications center like the Fellowship for Intentional Community
> and do consulting. They would have at least an intuitive sense of how
> many of their contacts had later turned up in communities.
> A more meaningful assessment might be at a higher level of
> organization - beyond talking.
> Sharon
> ----
> Sharon Villines
> "Logic will get you from A to B.  Imagination will take you
> everywhere."  Albert Einstein
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