Cohousing-L Mailing List: Re: Cohousing-L tailing off

[Fred H. Olson (fholson]

Tho I think there may be a tendency to try and read too much into the
"tailing off" of the number of messages on Cohousing-L, the discussion
seems to be of interest based on the number of replies.  Maybe we are
wondering if it portends something about the long term viability of
cohousing-L or even popularity of cohousing generally. Here in Minnesota
many of us sense that we are (uniquely ?) experiencing a decline in
cohousing interest.  It's sort of a crisis of confidence in the value of
the idea - more in our heads than real I hope (and think). (I think it
can be largely be explained by burnout, maturing of initial enthusiasm
and lack of burning soles to organize area-wide activity and outreach.)

I think cohousing is a good idea in the LONG RUN and bumps along the way
should not deter us.  I am also confident that cohousing-L will continue
to be a useful tool for shifting reasons and a shifting group of people.

In any case I decided to analyze the Cohousing-L number of messages a
little closer -- numbers are relatively easy examine (compared to
reality)...  As we know numbers can lie, after all the "incense for
sale" and the "exclusive recreational community" spams counted as posted
messages.

If we exclude the first year or so when the list was clearly building up,
and adjust for down time ( see below):

The 2 years or so before the move, the average was      211 msg per month.
In the year or so since  the move, the average has been 108 msg per month.

It is clear now that the statement in the introduction to the list:
"Cohousing-L is a high volume list with about 300 messages per month."
is / was an overstatement even before the move.  The number of messages
per month has fluctuated substantially and only 3 times exceeded 300.

My hypothesis is still that the decline in numbers relates mostly to the
move to a new listserver AND the one month down time to make the move.
Therefore I decided to look closer at the pre-move decline that Stuart's
graph showed.  I decided to look at month to month numbers and plot them;
see below.  I looked up the significant server down times and put
them on the graph which significantly explains 2 months with low numbers
in the post-peak / pre-move period (6/95-1/96).  That leaves one month
with low numbers in that period - September 1995.  That month was in the
lead up to the second national convention and it may have been that people
were busy getting ready for the conference and posted less often (tho
emailed to other conference participants more ??)

Thus I dont put too much significance on the pre-move decline.
I've previously stated a couple post-move factors and that
I DO NOT see the lower numbers to be a "problem".

Fred

Cohousing-L -- number of messages posted per month  Compiled by Fred H. Olson
# messages:             100       150       200                 300
                         |         |         |                   |    March
10/92 *                  |         |         |          3        |   24,1997
11/92 *                  |         |         |          1        |
12/92 ****               |         |         |         22        |
 1/93 *******            |         |         |         36        |
 2/93 *                  |         |         |          1        |
 3/93 **                 |         |         |         11        |
 4/93 ***                |         |         |         14        |
 5/93 ********           |         |         |         40        |
 6/93 ***                |         |         |         14        |
 7/93 **********         |         |         |         53        |
 8/93 ******             |         |         |         31        |
 9/93 ******             |         |         |         30        |
10/93 *                  |         |         |          7        |
11/93 *******************|**       |         |        109        |
12/93 ******             |         |         |         32        |
 1/94 ***********        |         |         |         55        |
 2/94 ****************** |         |         |         91        |
 3/94 *******************|******** |         |        143        |
 4/94 *******************|***      |         |        117        |
 5/94 *******************|*********|******   |        179        |
 6/94 *******************|*********|*        |        157        |
 7/94 *******************|******** |         |        143        |
 8/94 *******************|*********|*********|********264**      |
 9/94 *******************|*********|*********|****    222        |
10/94 *******************|******   |         |        129        |
11/94 *******************|*********|**       |        162        |
12/94 *******************|*********|*****    |        175        |
 1/95 *******************|*********|*********         194        |
 2/95 *******************|*********|*********|******* 236        |
 3/95 *******************|*********|*********|********279*****   |
 4/95 *******************|*********|*********|******  231        |
 5/95 *******************|*********|*********|********301*********
 6/95 *******************|*********|*********|********360********|************
 7/95 *******************............................  94 (235)  | dn:18 days
 8/95 *******************|*********|*********|********291******* |
 9/95 *******************|****     |         |        119   (pre | natl conf)
10/95 *******************|*********|*********|********315********|***
11/95 *******************|**********...............   151 (227)  | dn:10 days
12/95 *******************|*********|*********         196        |
 1/96 *******************|*********|*********|*       204        |
 2/96 *                  |         |         |          1        | dn:30 days
 3/96 *******************|****     |         |        123        | (at mtn)
 4/96 **************     |         |         |         72        |
 5/96 **************     |         |         |         70        |
 6/96 *******************|*****    |         |        126        |
 7/96 *******************|****     |         |        123        |
 8/96 *****************  |         |         |         84        |
 9/96 **************     |         |         |         70        |
10/96 *******************|**********         |        149        |
11/96 ****************   |         |         |         79        |
12/96 **************........       |         |         73 (109)  | dn:10 days
 1/97 *******************|*****    |         |        124        |
 2/97 ***************    |         |         |         75        |
 3/97 **************     |(partial)|         |         69        |
                         |         |         |                   |
                        100       150       200                 300

NOTES:
* = 5 messages                                     3/24/97
.. = 5 messages that may have been posted          if listserv was not down
(nnn) total number of messages or month that may have been posted if " "
  # that "may have been posted" based on ((actual # msg) / (days up)) * 30
subtotal 3/94 thru 1/96    4662 22   months (down about 30 days)    211/mo
subtotal 3/96 thru 3/24/97 1237 11.5 months (dn 10 days, part 3/97) 108/mo

--
Fred H. Olson  fholson [at] tc.umn.edu
(612)588-9532  Amateur radio: WB0YQM      List manager of:
Cohousing-L  See http://www.cohousing.org/    and
Twin Cities Neighborhood issues list. See http://freenet.msp.mn.us/