Cohousing-L Mailing List: FW: Senior Housing & Senior Living Trends Reported by Senior Housing News

[Thomas Lofft (tlofft]

I found this article very informative for Senior Co-housing developers who 
might be thinking they have the only project that is suffering in the current 
economic malaise.

This link might take you to the original website publication:
10 Senior Housing & Senior Living Trends To Watch In 2010

For those trying to read this on their Blackberry, I apologize.
For those who like to read without surfing, I'll attach the entire text.
10 Senior Housing & Senior Living Trends To Watch In 2010
January 5th, 2010 · 1 Comment

It’s that time of year for our version of top trends to look for in Senior 
Housing & Living in 2010.  With 2009 in the rear view mirror, our Senior 
Housing Trends in 2009 was view by over 5,000 people last year and was quoted 
by a number of students, researchers and politicians both nationally and around 
the world.  Are we experts?  No, we just follow this stuff everyday and is 
strictly our opinion.


1.  Finance and Capital Markets Heal Slowly, Carefully and Conservatively
The disconnect between buyers and sellers in both the physical property 
environment and debt markets will slowly decrease through the year.  However, 
this gap may increase further as more financial institutions unload repossessed 
properties where there is either a saturated market or weak demand for product. 
 Many properties that are currently below stabilization rates are being 
severely discounted because of their financial performance and their bankers 
are pushing them to make moves either through refinance or sale.  Bank owned 
properties and non performing assets should continue to rise as institutions 
are loathe to spend money to license, operate and maintain facilities but will 
also face pressure from regulatory bodies to exit from these assets as quickly 
as possible under the motto “your first loss is you best loss”. Reverse 
mortgages will continue to gain further exposure as a senior housing choice but 
housing values and negative stigmatism regarding real or perceived “financial 
abuse” will limit the growth in 2010. Other interesting topics from the readers 
include topics such as will quality ratings and metrics have greater 
significance in the underwriting process for financing and will failed & 
underperforming hotel/leisure properties be able to be repositioned as ALF or 
another type of senior housing?
2.  Construction & Rehabilitation Struggles To Recover In 2010
New construction and construction financing will continue to be difficult to 
obtain through at least summer of 2010 so new construction projects will be in 
short supply overall. As communities and providers evaluate their current 
infrastructure, many will begin to examine the cost of demolishing and 
rebuilding versus renovating and retrofitting both from a cost standpoint and 
the ability to deliver more services at a better margin. Others may simply have 
no choice as some facilities may be on the brink of condemnation or functional 
obsolescence. In either case, access to capital and financing will hinder and 
slow the decision process. 
3.  Green Goes Mainstream
The term “green” is beginning to fee like “white noise” when it comes to 
developers and operators marketing their projects. “Green” design in senior 
housing is being used so much in marketing of projects that we feel that not 
only is it becoming lost in the sales pitch, it is almost ignored. Maybe there 
should be a developer/operator to tout how “environmentally decadent” their 
project is to get some attention? It certainly would get a few people to stop 
and say, “Huh?”. LEED certification & Energy Star appliances are wonderful 
things, however what are the tangible benefits?  What about common sense 
tactics such as retrofitting and winterization? What’s the bottom line effect?  
In 2010, if you can’t show me the money, don’t make a fuss about how green you 
are unless you’re a frog named Kermit and have the skin to prove it.
4.  Economic Development and Employment As Byproduct of Growing Senior Housing 
& Living Market
With the economy struggling and discussion of job creation circulating around 
Washington, senior housing & living will be one of the bright spots on the 
horizon.  Whether its “cash for caulkers” for winterizing and retrofitting 
homes to new service businesses such as home-care and senior transportation, 
senior living industry could be a hotbed for economic development. The 
demographic statistics are undeniable and the heavily segmented and fragmented 
industry is ripe for small business creation and job growth. This is part of 
the reason we decided to launch our Senior Housing News Jobs section.  
5.  Practical Technology Solutions With Tangible Benefits and ROI
Technology is currently gaining momentum as a key part of senior living. New 
products and services are coming to market quickly using off the shelf 
technologies enabling quicker speed to market. From monitoring solutions to 
various gadgets, senior living technology will be one of the hot tech trends 
with consumers and corporate types. Look for solutions that use open 
architecture and standard hardware and software with a focus on return on 
investment.  Look for all solutions to have a mobile internet solution attached 
to it…senior housing…there’s an app for that.
6.  Service Leans Further Towards Provide Preventive Care Solutions
When it comes to senior housing, look for a more mental and spiritual side of 
life. Look for preventative care measures to take precedence as focus is placed 
on the physical, mental and emotional well being of seniors this year.  Yoga 
anyone?  As access to capital for infrastructure spending is limited, look for 
senior housing operators to market the “service side” of their businesses more 
heavily in 2010.
7.  Sales & Marketing of Senior Housing
With the down economy still struggling, look for senior living providers to 
continue to access traditional media based upon the cheaper prices during the 
next 12 months. Marketing of senior housing & living will begin to change and 
become more prevalent in mainstream media as advertisers look towards the 
demographic trends. As time goes on, those costs will most likely increase as 
competition increases for those eyeballs and begin to shift to online marketing 
campaigns. Direct mail marketing companies will no doubt be targeting this 
demographic based upon data that they have accumulated and what is accessible 
through information bureaus to target seniors and drive consumers from the 
traditional print and television mediums on to the web.  Internet advertising 
for senior living will need to focus on different channels such as brand 
awareness, internet leads from 3rd party search & lead providers and home grown 
promotion and advertising.  
8.  Alternative Senior Housing Options Continue To Grow
These outliers will gain more acceptance so that a broader portion of the 
population may look at these solutions as more readily accessible options:


Small Group Living / Green House Project Design 
Cooperatives 
Home Sharing 
Time Sharing / Fractional Ownership concepts 
Rural Senior Service Centers (health care) 
Reverse Mortgages 
Expatriate Retirement – retirement living in Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean 
for US resident 
9.  Risk Management Becomes Mission Critical (if not already)
As media outlets fan the flames of drama, look for further calls for regulatory 
oversight and disclosure for products and services from state, regional and 
national government and quasi-government entities. This increase in regulatory 
burden and increase in demand will cascade into higher risk management costs, 
increased litigation risk and higher insurance premiums. Senior living industry 
participants will place a higher premium on reputation management  in the 
marketplace and do what they can to protect the risks associated with poor 
reviews, negative publicity in the local press and disgruntled residents, 
employees and family members.
10.  What Is Affordable Senior Housing?
The question of what is affordable senior housing remains an elusive question 
depending on the financial circumstances of the customer… Is moving into a 
luxury CCRC more affordable than living in a mutli-million home?  Is downsizing 
the right move into a smaller single family residence / condo or is moving into 
a senior apartment/independent living building the lowest cost solution?  Look 
for demand on the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum to begin to drive 
low to moderate senior housing projects in 2010 in a trend that will continue 
to accelerate while the more luxurious, high profile projects have a slower 
growth trajectory.

Thanks for reading. Keep communicating

Tom Lofft
Liberty Village, MD