Cohousing-L Mailing List: Delphi Method [was Consensus, Majority vote, blocks

[Sharon Villines (sharon]

> "Pro-active facilitation and the Delphi Method could get us over some of
> these humps."

From Wikipedia"

> The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally 
> developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a 
> panel of experts.
> 
> In the standard version, the experts answer questionnaires in two or more 
> rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the 
> experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they 
> provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their 
> earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It 
> is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease 
> and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. In Europe, more 
> recent web-based experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication 
> technique for interactive decision-making and e-democracy.
> 
> Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a 
> structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from 
> unstructured groups. This has been indicated with the term "collective 
> intelligence". The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face 
> meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE).

I hadn't known the name of this method so I looked it up. I find Wikipedia to 
be the best and fastest first source on almost anything.

Rounds are also designed to achieve this result but I think the anonymous 
written summaries are best. More objective and focused. No influence of body 
language or favored sources. You have to do it several times because people 
will say I don't see my comments in your summary. In fact, people change from 
moment to moment and sometimes don't see their ideas in even a verbatim 
transcription of what they said. By having a written document, people also 
begin to converge on a common l language.

There is a version of this in Japan where a written document (report, letter, 
etc.) is circulated and edited by each person without notes or attribution — 
none of those horrid track changes. When the document makes the full circle 
with no edits, it is complete.

Sharon
----
Sharon Villines, Washington DC
"Behavior is determined by the prevailing form of decision making." Gerard 
Endenburg