Re: Chances of Finding Members with Children <– Date –>    <– Thread –> From: Diana Carroll (dianaecarrollgmail.com) Date: Sat, 17 Apr 2021 19:01:13 -0700 (PDT)
```You think households with children choose where to live randomly?

On Sat, Apr 17, 2021 at 9:39 PM Sharon Villines via Cohousing-L <
cohousing-l [at] cohousing.org> wrote:

> I worked on the numbers for realistic expectations of households with
> children. The upshot is that if you are building 30 units and all other
> things are equal, you can’t expect to have more than 6 or so units with
> children under 18. And that may be generous. The figures I used are below
> and may be totally wrong — please check them before you panic.
>
> Sharon
>
> CAUTION: These are rough numbers, hard to find exact comparisons. And I’m
> a pictures person not a numbers person so I can mess up things very easily.
>
> Population as of 2018 (wikipedia)
>
> 0–17    61,175,933      18.73%
> 18–24   43,351,778      13.27%
> 25–54   128,863,172     39.45%
> 55–64   42,179,856      12.91%
> 65+             51,055,052      15.63%
>
> One problem with these statistics is that the 25-54 includes age range of
> 29 years. 55-64 only includes a range of 9 years!
>
> Combining 55-64 and 65+ is 93,234,908 people. The expected lifetime is ~80
> so combining these two groups to 55-80 would be 25 years for 28.54% of the
> population. Since the expected home buyer is expected to be in the 24+ age
> group so we can forget the 0-24 age groups.
>
> That results in 2 groups of a comparable range of years
>
> ages 25-54 would be 39.45% of the population
> ages 55-80 would be 28.54% of the population
>
> If a cohousing community has 30 units, the proportion of units reflecting
> these percentages:
>
> 25-54 age group would be 16-17 units
> 55-80 age group would be 13-14 units
>
> The total of all households with children 18 or under living at home is
> 40%, but how many of those are in the under 25 age group?  I think it is
> reasonable to assume that few households headed by adults over age 55
> include children. So we can use the 40% figure but it is probably generous.
>
>  40% of the 16-17 units for the age group of 25-54 would be a maximum of
> 6-7 units with children.
>
> The largest number of people planning to move or downsize for one reason
> or another is probably in the over 55 age group and many of those widowed
> women.
>
>
>
>
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