Cohousing-L Mailing List: Re: Cohousing and Y2k (rather long)

[Catherine Harper (tylik]

On Sat, 7 Nov 1998, Stevenson/Bitner wrote:

> I'm not sure what you are expecting to happen.  Are you afraid of Y2K 
> riots??  Roman says there are survivalist groups using the Y2K problem as 
> an excuse for hoarding guns and ammunition.  Are we there yet?  I 
> apologize in advance for sounding sarcastic, but I'm pretty taken aback 
> by this; it seems an over-reaction to me.  This ain't the middle ages. 

Mmm.  Personally, I find the combination of religious groups that expect
the world to come to and end (2000 being a large, round number -- I can't
really make sense of that one myself) and the fact that we will almost
certainly be seeing infrastructure outages in some parts of the country
pretty disturbing.  Remember, the problems themselves don't have to be
that bad if people react to them badly enough.  Encouraging a sense of
civic responsibility seems like a very good idea right now, and hey, if
everything does work just fine, it's *still* a good idea.

Professionally, I've been dealing for the last years with large network
failure and recovery scenarios (not specifically Y2K related, but
inclusive of), and from what I can tell a lot of organizations just plain
started working too late on fixing their Y2K problems to finish them in
time.  Having seen very few software project ever finish on time, frankly
it bugs the heck out of me when I see projects that are scheduled to
finish in December of '99 and are already running behind schedule.
Especially at places like hospitals.  Most of the preparedness plans I've
seen from outside of the computer industry simply do not meet my own
standards for thoroughness (especially in terms of independant
verification in an integrated environment).  Thisis not a matter of my
standards being altogether so high, either -- I do not, as a rule, work on
life critical systems.  And keep in mind that things that are obviously
computers are the least of the problem -- computer failures will be a pain
in the ass, but if the power goes out they are kind of irrelevant.  Look
into embedded systems. 

The goods new is that after years of blowing off the problem, people are
taking it seriously are trying to deal with it.  Not everything is going
to get fixed, but with a little luck and a lot of work, most of the
critical systems might be in reasonable shape.  I'm not saying the end of
the world is comeing, but emergency preparedness is still a very good idea
-- and really, even if we didn't have y2k looming over us, it still would
be. 

The first site I'd recommend most is the govermental site
http://www.y2k.gov -- but for heavens sake read this site several levels
down.  It's all fine and good for someone to say that the National Energy
Reliability Commision is "cautiously optimistic" about their y2k
readiness, but I find it a bit less reassuring when you look at their
actual numbers and discover that less then two third of the utilities
companies surveyed even have a written plan for dealing with y2k problems,
much less have donea nything to follow it.  (You might also check out
www.fema.gov for general emergency preparedness info, though they do not
themselves have much y2k info on their site.)

My favorite non governmental site is http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/
Good readable articles, good solid information, and an editorial slant
that I approve of.  (Of course, I'm an engineer ;-) )  I particularly like
their article on why not to move to a rural area.  There is a lot of other
information out there -- and usually the "Stock the bunkers!" people are
fairly obvious. 

Once you've educated yourself on the basic issues, I'd recommend checking
in with your local utilities and other essential services.  (Among which
I'm including grocery stores and gas stations.)  Call them, ask what steps
they are taking, and ask for information in writing.  Do not let them tell
you you have no reason to ask, and make sure they give you specifics.  If
they are actually dealing with the problem, they will be willing to
discuss it.  (I am not betting money on our local power system being
entirely together, having gotten rather mixed information from them,
though they are working on it...  but Woodinville Water district is the
single most prepared utility I've yet talked to.  I am so impressed.)
Also ask if they have had any independant experts come in to verify their
work -- a lot of places are saying a lot about their readiness, and
absolutely refusing to have anyone come in from the outside to look over
what they've done.  

Anyhow, compile your findings, and share it with your neighbors.  It's at
least a start towards figuring out where your community stands.  

                                Catherine