Re: Decision-Making Methods
From: Sharon Villines (sharonsharonvillines.com)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 16:11:15 -0700 (PDT)
On 21 Apr 2012, at 1:49 PM, R Philip Dowds wrote:

> I am deeply familiar with preference ranking, since the City of Cambridge 
> (like San Francisco, Ireland and other jurisdictions) relies on the STV or 
> "Single Transferrable Vote" method of "Proportional Representation" — in 
> which you vote on a pool of at-large candidates, in order of preference.  For 
> more on this, go see FairVote.org, or contact Rob Richie.

I used the wrong word — sorry. It's a hard habit to break. Rating, not ranking.

Rating is very different from ranking. In ranking you have to make absolute yes 
and no choices to rank the options. In rating, you can rate all of them equally 
if they are equal to you. You don't have to put them on a scale in order to 
vote at all. 

Rating is measuring the quality of each one against a defined standard instead 
of against each other.

If the aim is a rug patter that meets certain requirements, the requirements 
are the standard. Rug A and Rug B, in your opinion might both be 5's while Rug 
C is a 4 and Rug D is a 1. Added to the ratings of other members, A or B will 
probably pull ahead but it might also be C. Unless you are out of step with the 
group or interpret the requirements differently, it is unlikely to be D.

> How these discrete targets of preference ranking are defined is absolutely 
> and decisively critical for the outcome.  

This is true. It's true in consensus decision-making as well, and a major 
downfall in decision-making. It's important that everyone agree to the 
definitions, or the job description on elections. What is the aim of this 
decision? What are the options we are considering?

> Let's say, for instance, that the community concern is that of better 
> transportation options for all its members.  Now the community has to choose 
> ... something.  How that "something" is framed is critical.  For instance, 
> the choice could be ...
> 
> Buy a new car for $20K, versus by a used car for $10K; or ...
> Buy a new car, versus buy a new pick-up truck; or ...
> Buy a used car, versus create a communal ride share hot line; or ...
> Create a communal ride share hot line, versus buy into the municipal weekly 
> van transport program; or …

That is a forced choice exercise. In a rating, each member who cared to 
participate would rate the car for $20, the used car for $10, the pick up, the 
communal ride hot line, etc.

There might need to be two rounds of rating. I've been recently asking my 
granddaughter if she preferred piano to ballet and getting wishy-washy answers 
over and over. She has to drop one or the other because she is at the level 
where things get serious and lessons double and it's too much for everyone. 
When soccer league started, I asked her if she preferred ballet or soccer. The 
resounding response was soccer! 

I had been asking her to compare apples and oranges and getting no decision. so 
comparing communal ride shares to a used car might not be a good comparison 
because they do, or have the possibility of doing, different things.

I just read Honeybee Democracy which analyzes how bees make the decision to 
choose one new hive over another. They do it by each scout finding a hive and 
explaining it to the others using an absolute criteria. The bees do not go out 
and argue about this hive or that hive — they don't all visit all of them. The 
bees are all genetically similar, having been born from the same queen, and a 
clear objective. Hives have a narrow range of acceptability.

Each bee describes the potential hive they found and the other bees go look at 
it if they are persuaded by the bee's enthusiasm. Over the course of many 
hours, bees find hives and dance for them and other bees go look at them. 
Gradually the bees focus on one bee and the hive they recommend. The other 
dancers gradually stop dancing and the choice is made. The last bee dancing, 
like break dancing. The last bee dancing is still dancing because they had the 
energy of knowing their hive best met the criteria and the energy of increasing 
support for their choice.

(The scientist who did the studies and wrote the book does note that for this 
to work in science takes a generation because the other scientists don't stop 
dancing. It's the next generation that clusters to the best idea to make the 
choice.)

An interesting book and I'll be writing more on it.

Sharon
----
Sharon Villines
Takoma Village Cohousing, Washington DC
http://www.takomavillage.org





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